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Irrational exuberance redux?

The bears have been taking a beating and U.S. stock indexes have been charging ahead since the 800+ point correction in the Dow beginning with the 416 point drop on Feb. 27, reversed.

While the markets of the late 1990s, dubbed by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan as displaying irrational exuberance, were somewhat understandable given the long period of time since anyone saw a bear market, the pain of the 2000-02 bear market should be relatively fresh in investors’ minds.

The bulls may argue that warning of an overheated market were prevalent throughout the 1990s and those that got out or got short too soon suffered just as much as those who jumped on the bandwagon near the top.That being said, there are some interesting and perhaps chilling similarities to the current market and past blow-off tops.

Futures contributor Garrett Jones has pointed out in the past that the four-year cycle low due in 2006 has not occurred (if you don’t count the July 2006 low). That was also the case in 1986, with the cycle low coming with a vengeance in 1987. In the upcoming June Futures Market Strategy article, Jones points out that the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index set a dubious record on April 27. It posted 19 of 21 up days. The second time in history that has occurred. The first time was in 1929, two months before the crash. In both cases the market held the 19 of 21 up day mark for a series of days. In 1968, a few moths prior to that downturn, the market set a similar mark with 18 of 21 up days. (by Daniel P. Collins)

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on May 10, 2007 1:41 AM.

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