Archive for June, 2008

How much does it hurt?

Monday, June 16th, 2008

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) was released today, demonstrating that home builder’s confidence has fallen again. The index is now at 18, its lowest since December 2007.

“Clearly, conditions in the housing market remain very weak, and our builder members are not seeing any signs of improvement,” said David Seiders NAHB chief economist in a press statement. “Indeed, the continuing erosion of employment and consumer confidence/sentiment, coupled with surging energy costs, falling house prices and rising home mortgage foreclosures, pose considerable downside risks to the economy and our housing forecast. A targeted stimulus such as a temporary home-buyer tax credit would help turn this situation around and restore housing as an engine of economic growth.”

And in a move likely to chip away at some of the U.S. dollar’s recent gains, the Federal Reserve today announced today that it will offer another $75 billion in 28-day credit through its Term Auction Facility, effectively accepting more mortgage based securities as collateral for windows at the Fed’s discount window.

Here’s an invitation for you to comment on these most recent developments: What do you think this means? Is the Fed just digging us in deeper? Or are their efforts having any positive impact on the markets?

So, what do you think?

Armed and dangerous

Thursday, June 12th, 2008

Since Tuesday we have been following the story of Sam Israel III’s disappearance; and while there have been many stories, there have been only a few real developments:

Initially, it was reported that a security camera showed Israel getting out of his car and into another vehicle, then there was a hasty denial.

Authorities have given up dragging the river. Interestingly, of the 40 suicides that have taken place on the bridge, 39 of the bodies have been found.

And this morning, the Associated Press is reporting that Federal Marshals have issued Wanted posters and that Israel should be considered “armed and dangerous.”

Now to get a copy of the poster….

Down on the Bayou…

Tuesday, June 10th, 2008

Remember Samuel Israel III of Bayou Hedge Fund Group? Back in April he was sentenced to 20 years in federal prison for fraud and variety of other ways of stealing $450 million from customers.

This morning, the Associated Press is reporting that a GMC Envoy registered to Israel was found with the phrase “Suicide is Painless” written in the dust on the hood of the vehicle, which was apparently abandoned on the Bear Mountain Bridge over the Hudson River.

Israel was to surrender to authorities on June 9 to begin serving his sentence. No body has been found and no one has reported seeing anyone jump from the bridge.

Watch this space for updates.

Avarice in Bloom II

Tuesday, June 10th, 2008

This morning a U.S. bankruptcy judge approved a $10.7 million settlement between Sentinel Management Group Inc.’s bankruptcy trustee and Philip Bloom, Sentinel’s founder, and his son Eric Bloom, the firm’s CEO. The trustee, Fred Grede had initially sought $350 million recovery for Sentinel’s creditors.

“We think there are significantly more sources of recovery,” Grede said in a previous conversation. Grede has also filed suit against the Bank of New York Mellon and Sentinel’s accountants, and adds that there will be other lawsuits to recovery more of the Sentinel customer funds going forward.

The Bank of New York, has notably filed suit against the trustee.

For background on the case and details of the settlement and access to court documents, see posting:
Avarice in bloom.

It’s the dollar, stupid

Monday, June 9th, 2008

Cause and effect is always a tricky concept and that is most true when it comes to markets. With only two directions to go any explanation can seem valid. So when the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 400 points on Friday there where many explanations out there.

The sharp increase in the unemployment rate, to 5.5% from 5% — when most expectations called for a minor increase to 5.1% — was obviously what got the bears rolling and the consensus is that the sharp increase in crude oil is what kept up the selling pressure.

I would suggest that Comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet, suggesting that the ECB could soon raise interest rates to address rising inflation is what triggered dollar weakness and consequently the oil rally but it has already been determined that evil speculators are the only cause of higher oil prices. Isn’t it nice for “big Oil” and Opec that there is a new scapegoat on the block to point at.

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The changing face of foreclosures

Friday, June 6th, 2008

This week The Tonight Show’s second banana Ed McMahon has been discussing his financial difficulties in People magazine and last night he appeared on Larry King Live to discuss the foreclosure of his home, being $644,000 in arrears on the $4.8 million house.

While many celebrities have been sharing the Celebrity Foreclosure spotlight, including NLB outfielder Jose Canseco, Motown superstar Aretha Franklin, boxer Evander Holyfield and that jerk from the NBA Latrell Sprewell, McMahon, still recuperating from having broken his neck, is certainly more sympathetic and took the opportunity to publicly address the situation in a way that could potentially help someone else.

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CFTC takes action on ags

Tuesday, June 3rd, 2008

In response to the tounge lashing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) got from hedgers at its April forum to discuss record volatility in the agricultural markets, the agency released several agricultural market initiatives today that are designed to “improve oversight of the futures markets and bring greater transparency to the types of traders in the marketplace, including large index traders.” Among these initiatives are a review of trader reporting and classification and a withdrawal of the proposals to increase spec limits, which were widely criticized by participants at the forum. Perhaps in response to the very loud chorus of disgruntled cotton producers at the forum, the initiatives also include an investigation into the February/March price run-up in cotton. The Intercontinental Exchange, which took a lot of heat at the forum on the cotton situation, released a statement in support of the initiatives. In a conference call, CFTC Acting Chairman Walt Lukken said that the CFTC also is reviewing the process of how commercial and non-commercial traders are classified. The aim of all of these initiatives, he noted, is to “make sure the markets are functioning correctly.” Lukken also said that the authorities brought about by the reauthorization of the CFTC last week would be helpful in our “oversight of the exempt commercial energy markets” and “bring greater transparencies to those markets.”

Oil speculators under fire again

Tuesday, June 3rd, 2008

Today the U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation became the latest Senate committee to hold a hearing to investigate whether increased speculation in the energy markets is affecting oil prices. Those testifying at the hearing disagreed with the current line of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that factors relating to supply and demand are driving up the price of oil. Michael Greenburger, former director of the division of trading and markets at the CFTC, said that at least 70 percent of the crude oil market is driven by speculators. Greenburger said international oil contracts such as the Intercontinental Exchange’s (ICE) West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contracts traded in London are “robbing us blind.” On May 29, the CFTC announced energy market initiatives implementing expanded information-sharing to provide the CFTC with daily large trader positions in the UK WTI crude oil contract and provide crude oil large trader position data for all contract months in the WTI contract and announced the continuing of a CFTC investigation on crude oil. Greenburger noted that on the day of the CFTC announcement, the price of oil went down and the dollar went up.

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Has CBOE/CBOT buried hatchet?

Monday, June 2nd, 2008

Early Monday morning we got word that the Executive Committee of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) had suspended all purchase and sale transactions in CBOE memberships. The announcement could mean only one thing, that the long dispute over CBOE exercise right privileges (ERPs), currently being fought in a Delaware Chancery Court, could be near a settlement.

An attorney familiar with the industry told us this morning that when there is a halt on seat transactions it usually precedes an announcement that could affect the value of seats. “They don’t want anyone to have an advantage or disadvantage. History says there will be an announcement [that will involve the value of memberships],” said the attorney.

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Bursting the political market bubble

Monday, June 2nd, 2008

There’s an interesting essay in the June issue of Wired magazine about prediction markets (Prediction Markets Are Hot, But Here’s Why They Can Be So Wrong). Unlike every other story that I have read about these markets, which typically appear to have been written by their own marketing departments, this story takes the Mickey of them citing Hillary Clinton’s thrashing of Barack Obama in the New Hampshire Democratic primary as its example. If you recall, Obama was favored to win the state by 91%, but Clinton squeaked by, winning all nine of the state’s pledged delegates.

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