Archive for December, 2008

A bad number

Friday, December 5th, 2008

Friday we found out that 533,000 Americans lost their job in November, the highest decline in non-farm payrolls in 34 years. The consensus expectation was a drop between 300,000 and 320,000. Despite this awful number the market took it well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 250 points in early morning trading—barely worth a mention given recent moves— and actually ended the day at 8635.42, up 259.18 points.

When you add the revisions from previous months that number grows to 732,000 jobs and the net job loss over the last three months is 1.26 million.

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ECB and BoE rate cuts ripple through Treasury markets

Thursday, December 4th, 2008

The European Central Bank has cut interest rates by 75 basis points, to 2.5% and the Bank of England has cut by a full percentage point to 2% from 3%.

Prior to the announcements, the yield on 10-year U.S. notes had fallen to 2.54%; it has since risen to 2.63%. Just days ago, the yield on the 10-year had fallen to 2.99%; in its entire history, the 10-year had never traded below 3%. Even more spectacular is that the 30-year bond is at 3.15%. For decades, the floor had been 4%.

“Lower yields should act as incentive for investors to develop a more healthy appetite for risk by the second quarter of 2009. Should this occur, it should have a positive impact on the economy in the form of the ability of corporations to issue debt to capitalize operations and expansions,” says Carley Garner, bond trader at DeCarley Trading LLC. “Additionally, confidence in equities and firming stock prices may relieve the tension currently experienced by consumers and encourage spending once again.”

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How high?

Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008

Just when you think the cost of the government bailout sparked by the credit crisis can’t get any higher, it does. Last month’s federal bailout of Citigroup added to the tally, which is now in the trillion-dollar range. After a while all of those zeroes start to lose some meaning. However, the Consumerist blog is offering a little historical perspective, noting that the bailout costs more than the sum of several government projects throughout history. By their calculations, adjusted for inflation, the 2008 bailout costs more than the Marshall Plan, the Louisiana Purchase, the Korean War, the New Deal, the Iraq invasion, the Vietnam War and the all-time budget of NASA combined. Ouch.

Duh!

Monday, December 1st, 2008

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) revealed the worst kept secret in the world on Monday when its Business Cycle Dating Committee report “determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007.”

The peak marks the end of expansion and the beginning of a recession. The NBER does not accept the common definition of recession: two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators.”

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