Archive for August, 2009

New study on specs sheds little light

Friday, August 28th, 2009

Throughout the battle over who or what caused crude oil to spike to $147 per barrel last year CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have consistently contended that despite the bluster from certain members of Congress and analysis of self appointed experts, there has been no empirical study that linked the spike to speculators or the positions held by commodity index funds.

 

Whether that claim can still be made or not is debatable as Rice University just released a paper calling previous Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) studies that showed excess speculation was not responsible, flawed.

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Better watch what you say

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

When I saw the list of panelists to speak at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s hearings on speculative position limits last month my interest was peaked. Dr. Henry Jarecki was on the list and I have had the pleasure and challenge of interviewing Dr. Jarecki who has also contributed a couple of articles to Futures over the years.

 

I was interested because I knew that Dr. Jarecki had strong opinions on the issue and tends not to pull his punches. To put it more bluntly, he doesn’t suffer fools lightly and there has been a lot of foolish talk and recommendations on using regulatory powers to limit speculation and affect price by those who would blame speculators for the run up in commodity prices in general and more specifically for last year’s spike in crude oil.

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Back patting and buck passing

Monday, August 24th, 2009

While reading over Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments from the symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming last Friday a few things stick out. First, he follows a disturbing trend we have noted here for some time that dates the credit crisis to September 2008 instead of much earlier; next, he supports the popular notion that a slower rate of decline equals growth and throughout he is quite loose with details surrounding certain events. Most disturbing is he takes credit for avoiding a disaster but fails to take responsibility for anything. Bernanke pats himself and others on the back for averting a disaster that 1) he was at least partially responsible for creating and 2) he assured us was not going to happen. Both Bernanke and former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson were on record as saying the worst of the credit crisis was behind us while it was staring us in the face.

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Is this the beginning?

Wednesday, August 19th, 2009

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission made clear today that it intends to follow through on its promises to strictly enforce speculative position limits in futures markets. The agency withdrew two no-action letters that provided relief from position limits on corn, soybean and wheat contracts. The no-action letters, both from 2006, allowed a unit of Deutsche Bank, DB Commodity Services (through its DB Commodity Index Tracking Master Fund), and an unnamed  CPO/CTA  to take positions that exceeded federal speculative position limits. A person familiar with the matter says this is the first time a no-action letter had been withdrawn from DB. And a CFTC spokesperson told the Financial Times that this was the first time the commission has revoked a position limit exemption.

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Fear and speculation

Thursday, August 13th, 2009

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission completed hearings last week to discuss energy position limits and hedge exemptions and yesterday the International Energy Agency warned about the dangers to the market if U.S. and UK regulators don’t harmonize regulations according to a Financial Times story.

 

Discuss may not be the proper term for the hearings as it appeared a foregone conclusion that hard positions limits will be applied to U.S. energy futures markets. CME Group CEO Craig Donohue stated in his testimony that the CME Group was prepared to accept such limits though he also warned of their danger.

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OTC reform moves forward

Wednesday, August 12th, 2009

The Treasury department took the next steps in regulatory reform for over the counter (OTC) derivatives when it delivered legislative language to Capitol Hill yesterday. Treasury looks for Congress to create a bill on the matter by the end of the year, according to its press release. The legislation contains proposals from the Treasury’s regulatory blueprint from June, including requiring central clearing and trading of standardized OTC derivatives and moving more OTC derivatives on exchanges. (more…)

Ten bid on two — $2 trillion that is

Tuesday, August 11th, 2009

The Financial Times reported today that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is “aggressively hiring traders” to manage its growing securities portfolio.

 

The New York Fed implements the Fed’s monetary policy and according to the FT plans to increase the staff in its markets group to 400 by yearend. That is up from 240 at the end of 2007. And no wonder, the Fed has been purchasing fixed income securities at a record pace, doubling its holdings to more than $2 trillion in the last year according to the FT.

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Winning the expectations game

Friday, August 7th, 2009

The major stock indexes are rallying on a better than expected unemployment number. Non-farm payrolls for the month of July dropped 247,000, less than consensus estimates of 300,000 and the actual unemployment figure dropped to 9.4% from 9.5%.

 

For a brief period there bad news was bad news but we are back to the expectations game where spin always wins. And many analysts believe we are in the midst of a bull market. Here is the lead of the Washington Post’s online story on the number: “Employers throttle back on layoffs, cutting 247,000 jobs— the fewest in a year. Showing offers strong signal that recession is finally ending.”

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Where have all the traders gone?

Thursday, August 6th, 2009

Apparently, no where. In looking at the latest financial data for futures commission merchants that must be filed on a monthly basis, it seemed the amount in overall customer seg funds had dropped about $5 billion from the previous month (June data filed by July 31). But an inside the numbers look shows some surprises: A year ago, the total customer seg funds was a whopping $169 billion for the same period verses $138 billion in 2009. That certainly shows erosion in customer funds, which can be a rough gauge of customers in the market. But to give more perspective, for the same period in 2007, total customer seg funds were $115 billion, while a year earlier they were $106 billion. The summer months typically show a dip, and this year was no exception. Where were FCMs last fall when markets and companies were going off the charts? November 2008 had total seg funds of $166 billion. Overall all, discounting a few billion here and and a few billion there, the industry still has grown dramatically over the past couple years, at least according to the financial data filed into the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.