http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/ Buy the rumor, sell the fact. en Copyright 2008 Fri, 05 Sep 2008 17:54:47 -0600 http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/ http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss the unemployment rate to 6.1% from 5.7%. But all is not rosy. The liberal advocacy group Campaign for America’s Future put out a release Friday noting that “the misery index” has risen to 11.7%, it highest level since 1991. You may recall that the index came into vogue during the 1970s and 1980s political campaigns. The index is a composite of the unemployment rate and inflation using the annual Consumer Price Index. The press release got us thinking. We have chronicled in this space recently how the various methodologies to calculate economic reports by the Federal government have been altered to produce more positive numbers. In the July issue of Futures, we interviewed economist John Williams who keeps up the government’s economic statistics using the original methodology at his firm Shadow Government Statistics (SGS). ]]> http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/09/misery_loves_company.html http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/09/misery_loves_company.html Economy Markets CPI Dow Jones Misery index Unemployment report Fri, 05 Sep 2008 17:54:47 -0600 Swiss Futures and Options Association (SFOA) and held this year in Interlaken as the Bürgenstock resort undergoes renovation. As always, the host country – in this case, India – was the focus of Wednesday evening's opening panel and Thursday's entertainment; but representatives of the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) and its parent, Financial Technologies (FT) did more than just put on a good show. ]]> http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/09/indians_dominate_swiss_futures.html http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/09/indians_dominate_swiss_futures.html International Fri, 05 Sep 2008 11:40:17 -0600 CFTC's April agriculture forum was the lack of convergence between futures and cash prices in the ag markets. In July, the agency's Agricultural Advisory Committee held another meeting about convergence, where Acting Chairman Walt Lukken noted that "Some commercial participants have lost confidence in the ability to hedge in certain of these markets and it is critical that market participants work with the Commission to address this matter aggressively." Today CME Group offered to the CFTC some recommendations to improve convergence in its wheat contract, including increasing storage rates during the period from July through November to 8 cents per bushel per month, adding delivery points and a recommendation that the vomitoxin level for par delivery be lowered from three parts per million (ppm) to two ppm. ]]> http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/09/cme_group_offers_convergence_t.html http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/09/cme_group_offers_convergence_t.html Markets CFTC CME Group Fri, 05 Sep 2008 10:58:25 -0600 Unemployment increased to 6.1% and nonfarm payrolls decreased by 84,000, with concentrated losses in manufacturing and employment services, interestingly enough. In the past 12 months, according to the Labor Department, the number of unemployed has increased by 2.2 million and the unemployment rate has risen by 1.4% in the past year. ]]> http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/09/competing_forces.html http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/09/competing_forces.html economy GDP inflation Unemployment Fri, 05 Sep 2008 10:19:27 -0600 Initial unemployment claims for the week ending Aug. 30 jumped to 444,000, well above consensus estimates, contributed to negative sentiment. But tomorrow is the big one and given today’s move, a slightly better than expected report could cause quite a rally. As someone who followed these reports very closely, I can say that it is not that unusual for the unemployment report to come out completely counter to what initial claims showed. So it would not be proof of some conspiracy if tomorrow’s report is positive. ]]> http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/09/unenjoyment_day.html http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/09/unenjoyment_day.html Economy Markets GDP initial claims Unemployment report Thu, 04 Sep 2008 18:37:28 -0600 video diatribe, the hip hop mogul/purveyor of bling/frequent name-changer reveals that the skyrocketing price of oil has caused him to (gasp!) fly commercial. When Diddy leaves his private jet at home, you know the situation is dire. But Diddy isn't spending his time blaming speculators for the spike in oil like most of Congress, or instituting a hedging program on his fuel like most U.S. airlines. Instead, in true player fashion, he's giving a shout-out to all of his "Saudi Arabian brothers and sisters" asking "y'all to send me some oil for my jet." If his associates don't come through, perhaps Diddy could act as a celebrity witness if, as expected, Congress reopens hearings on speculation in the fall, bringing some much-needed hip-hop flavor to the proceedings. Word.]]> http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/08/gas_prices_dog_diddy.html http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/08/gas_prices_dog_diddy.html General oil speculators Thu, 28 Aug 2008 09:50:52 -0600 newswire story citing a minor shift towards concern over slow economic growth from inflation caused me to look at the release closely. I guess it was there somewhere but darned if I could find it. It is odd that they would abandon their shift from inflation after only just discovering it despite it being apparent for quite some time. But as Economist John Williams noted in the July issue of Futures, “The Fed is not concerned with inflation. It is not concerned about the economy…its primary function is keeping the banking system solvent.” ]]> http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/08/on_the_other_hand.html http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/08/on_the_other_hand.html Economy FOMC inflation Wed, 27 Aug 2008 21:10:51 -0600 While out last week on my “staycation”, my wife and I took our three boys to navy pier in Chicago. It was a beautiful summer day in Chicago and the Chicago Air and Water Show was going on, providing some impressive sights and sounds to our trip to the lake. We were disappointed that we could not walk all the way out on the pier because a private party had rented the fancy ballroom at the end of the pier and blocked off the public walkway as well. I noticed that Wachovia had rented the space and made a mental note that things must be improving for the bank. Maybe all those analysts claiming that the worst is over for the investment banks are right after all. If you make the same claim every few months you will eventually be right. http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/08/party_like_its.html http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/08/party_like_its.html Regulatory/actions Wed, 20 Aug 2008 19:19:47 -0600 I.O.U.S.A. on August 21 at the Evanston 18. The show time is 7 p.m. This should be quite an event. As much as I’m looking forward to the movie, the live round table discussion that follows should be just as entertaining. Participants will include Warren Buffett; William Niskanen, chairman of the Cato Institute; Bill Novelli, CEO of AARP; Pete Peterson; and Dave Walker, president & CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation and former U.S. comptroller general. The panel will be moderated by Becky Quick, co-anchor of CNBC’s morning news show Squawk Box. To claim your tickets, simply send me an e-mail at cmcmahon@futuresmag.com; include your name and a phone number and FREE TICKETS in the header. To claim your tickets, you will need to pick them up in person at the theater no less than 20 minutes prior to showtime. ]]> http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/08/come_and_get_em_-_free_tickets_for_iousa.html http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/08/come_and_get_em_-_free_tickets_for_iousa.html I.O.U.S.A national debt tickets Fri, 15 Aug 2008 15:20:00 -0600 I.O.U.S.A., opening Aug. 21, follows Dave Walker, former U.S. comptroller general, and Concord Coalition Founder Robert L. Bixby on their Fiscal Wake Up Tour. For 18 months, at Rotary Clubs, Better Business Bureau luncheons and town hall meetings, they discussed the national debt, its implications and possible solutions to the looming economic danger that threatens the United States. The film also features interviews with “the Mount Rushmore crowd of American economics,” including former Federal Reserve Chairmen Alan Greenspan and Paul Volker, and former Treasury secretaries Paul O’Neil and Bob Rubin as well as Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and one of the world’s wealthiest men, to tell the story. “We have the guys who are responsible for the Federal Reserve and heading up budget committees in Congress, and the former Treasury secretaries,” but it’s not just charts and figures, Wiggin says. Read more for info on your FREE TICKETS from Futures Magazine... ]]> http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/08/iousa_documentary_or_horror_flick.html http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/08/iousa_documentary_or_horror_flick.html Addison Wiggin Alan Greenspan Bill Novelli Dave Walker I.O.U.S.A. National debt Pete Peterson premier Warren Buffet Warren Buffett; William Niskanen Wed, 13 Aug 2008 16:19:35 -0600 CBOE members’ circular, CBOE’s office of the chairman issued a statement that while progress has been made, the agreement, which was to give former CBOT member an 18% equity stake in the options exchange and a cash payment of $300 million to end all claims, had not been finalized. Word is that the agreement is still being held up by infighting amongst CBOT members over the number of people who will qualify for the settlement. The fewer who qualify, the larger the individual payouts would be. The CBOE has the right to walk away from any agreement that does not extinguish equity claims by all former CBOT members. More to come…. ]]> http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/08/cbot_vs_cboe_no_cessation_of_h.html http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/08/cbot_vs_cboe_no_cessation_of_h.html CBOE CBOT ERP Tue, 12 Aug 2008 11:33:31 -0600 Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is stepping up its investigation of fraud in the off-exchange retail forex market with the formation of a retail foreign currency fraud enforcement task force. Since the agency's reauthorization in May, the CFTC has been buzzing with activity, studies and task forces, specifically in the energy arena with its formation of a task force in June to study commodity markets and its recent charges against trading fund Optiver for manipulation in Nymex oil contracts, which came after the CFTC endured Congressional attacks this summer that blamed speculators for higher oil prices. The CFTC now intends to show no mercy on retail forex fraudsters. “This announcement sends a clear signal that the CFTC is on the beat, and that our continued and increased cooperation with law enforcement authorities will help put these forex dealers where they belong – in jail,” said CFTC Commissioner Michael Dunn in a statement. ]]> http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/08/cftc_cracks_down_on_forex_frau.html http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/08/cftc_cracks_down_on_forex_frau.html Regulatory/actions CFTC Forex fraud Michael Dunn Mon, 11 Aug 2008 11:33:46 -0600 wire stories attributed the move to a drop in crude oil. However, crude oil was actually rallying in the pre open hours and at the time equity markets were spiking higher. ]]> http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/08/be_careful_of_what_you_hear.html http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/08/be_careful_of_what_you_hear.html Markets Cause and effect crude/equity connection Tue, 05 Aug 2008 11:22:54 -0600 extended its temporary rule restricting short selling on financial stocks including Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, UBS, Bank of America and others. It remains to be seen what lasting effect the rule will have on the market - the initial action spurred a market recovery - but either way the rule has been a definite plus for OneChicago. The single stock futures (SSF) exchange has taken full advantage of the short selling rule by touting SSFs on the financial giants affected by it - Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Deutche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, etc. OneChicago CEO David Downey says that since the short selling rule was introduced, the exchange has seen some increase in business, especially in Fannie Mae SSFs. "Interestingly we have been taking many calls from traders who are taking another look due to the new rules," he says, adding, "It still remains that the clearing members, ironically the very names that this ruling addresses, still resist letting the customers trade SSF." ]]> http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/07/shorts_rule_spikes_ssfs.html http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/07/shorts_rule_spikes_ssfs.html Regulatory/actions Investment banks OneChicago SEC short selling single stock futures Thu, 31 Jul 2008 10:35:54 -0600 extended its emergency action restricting naked short selling of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and 17 investment banks. The initial emergency action on July 15 pulled the market out of a downward spiral that had hit two-year lows. After a substantial recovery, nearly 900 points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the market turned south again, retracing the move by more than the notable 61.8% Fibonacci level. The extension spurred another impressive two-day rally. But we have to question where this faith is coming from. Sure it helps to put a bottom below the investment banks but it is based on the notion that “there now exists a substantial threat of sudden and excessive fluctuations of securities prices generally and disruption in the functioning of the securities markets that could threaten fair and orderly markets” according to the SEC that described this as “unusual and extraordinary circumstances.” ]]> http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/07/state_of_emergency.html http://www.buytherumorsellthefact.com/2008/07/state_of_emergency.html Economy Markets Regulatory/actions emergency action Federal Reserve John Williams SEC Term Auction Facility (TAF) Wed, 30 Jul 2008 20:09:43 -0600