Posts Tagged ‘Commodities’

This just in… Markets are functioning correctly

Tuesday, July 29th, 2008

That was the overall sentiment of analysts at the Dow Jones Indexes Mid-Year commodities outlook held Tuesday morning on the grain floor of the Chicago Board of Trade.

David Hightower, president and founder of the Hightower Report, joked that various pundits have cited 10 commodity bubble bursting events in recent years; he is not one of them. “We don’t see the factors that bring about a market top,” said Hightower who was commenting on the grain markets. “We don’t have high enough prices…we have to move to higher prices, demand has not been pushed back.”

One market where price has risen to the point of affecting demand is crude oil.
Phil Flynn, Alaron energy analyst and a consistent energy bull over the last decade, believes that for the first time in many years the price of crude may have hit a top and next year’s high will not exceed the current year’s high.

(more…)

Jim Rogers high on China

Monday, June 11th, 2007

Speaking at the Optionetics “Oasis 2007” seminar last week in Santa Clara, Calif., investment guru and commodities bull Jim Rogers provided his insights to a three-year trip around the world he took with his new wife, Paige Parker. He said his biggest return from the trip was his first child, a baby daughter. Rogers noted he never had children before because he didn’t want the bother, but it was his best experience to date and recommended everyone go out and start working on babies right away.

More seriously, Rogers gave his view of the world, stating that China will be the country of the 21st century, just as the United States was in the 20th century and Britain the century before that. He noted China had the “the best capitalists in the world,” despite being a Communistic country. In fact he alluded to moving his family to Asian soon. “China will be the next greatest country in the world, whether you like it or not.”

Other Rogers’ comments:

• Teach kids how to speak Mandarin. He said his nanny is Chinese and speaks only Mandarin to his baby girl, so she already is bi-lingual.
• Right now the Chinese shares market is in a bubble; don’t buy shares right now (although he couldn’t recommend when to buy it). He also noted he has huge amounts of Chinese stocks but wouldn’t say what despite intense audience questions.
• Although U.S. dollar has been the world’s reserve currency, the United States’ is the largest debtor in the world, owing the world $13 trillion, adding $1 trillion in interest debt every 15 months.
• It is terrible policy to debase the $ in the long run, history has showed this.
• Stay away from bonds unless you know how to go short.
• Stocks will be in a big trading range for several years.
• We are in the middle of a bull market in commodities, which is the second largest market in the world (only currency market is larger).
• Oil reserves are dropping. In fact, Indonesia will become an importer of oil by the end of the decade, which means it will be kicked out of OPEC, an exporting cartel.
• Best alternative fuel is nuclear, which is clean if controlled properly (This is a big if…even the United States has had problems in this area; imagine less developed countries control.)
• Biggest danger in the world is the water problem, or lack there of. He did recommend NOT to buy water as if and when it becomes serious, politicians will take it over.

Rogers new book, “A Bull in China” will be released soon. It will be based on his observations of his round the world trip.