The interview is below. What do you think? Is Rogers being too optimistic? What will your sell signal for silver be?

When he is backed into a corner about equities, Rogers says he is short emerging markets and the Nasdaq, and questions why more investors are not investing in commodities. He even suggests the channel name should be changed to CommoditiesNBC.

The full video clip is below. After watching it, tell us what you think. Are we facing $150/barrel oil? What is your take on commodities vs. equities?

David Hightower, president and founder of the Hightower Report, joked that various pundits have cited 10 commodity bubble bursting events in recent years; he is not one of them. “We don’t see the factors that bring about a market top,” said Hightower who was commenting on the grain markets. “We don’t have high enough prices…we have to move to higher prices, demand has not been pushed back.”

One market where price has risen to the point of affecting demand is crude oil.
Phil Flynn, Alaron energy analyst and a consistent energy bull over the last decade, believes that for the first time in many years the price of crude may have hit a top and next year’s high will not exceed the current year’s high.

While in the past Flynn has pointed to global economic growth and demand pushing oil higher, he says, the near doubling of crude prices from last October when the Federal Reserve cut interest rate by 50 basis points had a different dynamic. “[People] bough oil as a hedge against systemic risk. [They were] buying oil as a currency of last resort.”

Flynn expects crude to dip back below $100 this year and noted that there are signs of reduced U.S. demand.

All the analysts saw Congressional proposals to limit investments in commodities as a bad idea and counter productive. Flynn said such a move could be dangerous and lead to gas lines and move markets overseas.

Hightower said restriction on investing in commodities “would make shortages more acute in the future.” He added, “Stopping speculation would not stop China from eating or make India go back 25 years.”

Charles Nedoss, senior account manager for Peak Trading Group, noted that the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) corn and wheat indexes, which are financially settled and tend to track the cash market, have been correlating closely with the CBOT grain complex. That is an indication that the market forces are the driver of grain prices not over speculation, according to Nedoss.

John Prestbo, editor and executive director of Dow Jones Indexes said of the proposals to restrict commodity investing, “I am an optimist; I am hopeful that cooler heads will prevail.”

More seriously, Rogers gave his view of the world, stating that China will be the country of the 21st century, just as the United States was in the 20th century and Britain the century before that. He noted China had the “the best capitalists in the world,” despite being a Communistic country. In fact he alluded to moving his family to Asian soon. “China will be the next greatest country in the world, whether you like it or not.”

Other Rogers’ comments:

• Teach kids how to speak Mandarin. He said his nanny is Chinese and speaks only Mandarin to his baby girl, so she already is bi-lingual.
• Right now the Chinese shares market is in a bubble; don’t buy shares right now (although he couldn’t recommend when to buy it). He also noted he has huge amounts of Chinese stocks but wouldn’t say what despite intense audience questions.
• Although U.S. dollar has been the world’s reserve currency, the United States’ is the largest debtor in the world, owing the world $13 trillion, adding $1 trillion in interest debt every 15 months.
• It is terrible policy to debase the $ in the long run, history has showed this.
• Stay away from bonds unless you know how to go short.
• Stocks will be in a big trading range for several years.
• We are in the middle of a bull market in commodities, which is the second largest market in the world (only currency market is larger).
• Oil reserves are dropping. In fact, Indonesia will become an importer of oil by the end of the decade, which means it will be kicked out of OPEC, an exporting cartel.
• Best alternative fuel is nuclear, which is clean if controlled properly (This is a big if…even the United States has had problems in this area; imagine less developed countries control.)
• Biggest danger in the world is the water problem, or lack there of. He did recommend NOT to buy water as if and when it becomes serious, politicians will take it over.

Rogers new book, “A Bull in China” will be released soon. It will be based on his observations of his round the world trip.