“Two weeks ago, we were behind as far as putting the crops in the ground,” says Brian Cullen, a senior market analyst at New World Trading. Now, just weeks after the publication of the USDA’s planting intentions report, which indicated a total of 90.76 million acres of corn would go into the ground this spring, up 12 million acres from last year, only 78% of that is planted, roughly equivalent to the five-year average.

Not getting crops in the ground, and not getting rain, through the middle of May has made the market more volatile. July Corn futures ,which were as high as $3.96 per bushel on May 3, were as low as $3.54 per bushel a week later.

“And now we have another scarcity of rain,” Cullen says. “Even though we have the crops in the ground, without rain, they are not going to do anything.” He notes that to date, only 39% of the crop has emerged, only slightly higher than the five-year average of 36%. That could put pressure on supplies, driving corn futures up, especially with driving season upon us.

The question is, he says, is whether farmers will now scrap the crop in favor of soybeans, and if so, how big an affect it will have on the markets.