What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object? I am not sure but I think we may be facing this paradox as it relates to the markets and this week’s employment situation report. Most economic reports over the last month have indicated a soft economy and we hear more and more talk of a double dip recession. While a double dip recession is not likely, the consensus seems to be that we will run out of stimulus spending before the recovery begins in earnest. Yet equity markets have skyrocketed in July. The Dow is up more than 1,000 points since it hit a nine-month low following the release of the June employment report on July 2.
Posts Tagged ‘Economic outlook’
Waiting on the number
Wednesday, August 4th, 2010Numbers spin
Friday, July 2nd, 2010When searching for the press release for the June unemployment report form the Bureau of Labor Statistics I came across the White House blog from the Council of Economic Advisors.
Under the headlines: the Employment Situation In June, it stated, “Private nonfarm payroll employment increased by 83,000 in June and the unemployment rate fell two-tenths of a percentage point to 9.5%.”
Is a double dip coming?
Wednesday, June 23rd, 2010There has been several analysts predicting that the U.S. economy is headed for a double dip recession, which is looking more likely with each economic report we see. Whether we officially fall into a double dip recession or not, the economy clearly is still struggling. The current economic crisis began with housing and if it is likely to also end with housing, that end does not appear anywhere in site.
The price was no accident
Friday, May 21st, 2010Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened lower, coming within 50 points of the May 6 “flash crash” low. The S&P 500 actually took out its low from May 6 (see chart).
When examining what happened on May 6, I wrote a blog detailing all the bearish factors in the equities market. The point being that all these factors were sitting there like oily rags in a garage waiting for a match. The bears were claiming a major top was in place and the bulls knew a significant correction was coming before markets could once again rally. Once the market turned down, presumably due to what was going on in Europe, that scenario was in place. (more…)
Drama ahead in 2010?
Wednesday, December 30th, 2009It’s that time again, when all of the pundits and analysts weigh in with their predictions for the new year, and, as we leave “the aughts” behind, the new decade. The past two weeks have been chockablock with best of/worst of ’09 lists, events of the year, people of the year, etc. (Time magazine’s choice for Person of the Year for 2009, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, actually ties in very nicely with Futures’ January Markets piece, “Interest rate policy: Under pressure.”) The consensus among many pundits is that the coming decade HAS to be better than the one we’re leaving behind. (more…)
Ben, put your rep where your mouth is
Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009By now you have all heard that Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the recession is probably over following a speech last week.
Those words probably don’t mean a lot to those who have lost their jobs or those who will soon lose their jobs as the economy continues to shed jobs, albeit at a slower pace than in the heart of this recession.
Zombie economy
Tuesday, June 30th, 2009Most of the experts we interviewed for our July Markets Story, “Economic Recovery: Running on Empty” painted the economic picture as bleak, but predicted a possible recovery, albeit closer to 2010. In the meantime, interest rates are set to go up, inflation is on the rise, and the jobs outlook for the rest of the year is, according to the analysts we spoke to, either “awful” or “lousy”…take your pick. While making the overarching case to add gold and silver to your portfolio, Louis James, senior editor at Casey Research, uses another colorful anecdote to describe the economy: a zombie wearing lipstick.
Black cloud
Thursday, April 30th, 2009At the risk of sounding like the black cloud in the room, I am amazed at what I am reading regarding yesterday’s Federal Reserve’s statement following its April Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting.
We noted here yesterday how we were a little confused with the positive response to the poor Gross Domestic Product report showing back to back quarterly GDP declines of greater than 6% for the first time in more than 50 years.
Then yesterday afternoon the Fed released its statement. The Fed kept the target Fed Funds rate between zero and 0.25% and noted they would continue buying debt at the levels set at its previous meeting (some had expected/hoped they would increase purchases of Treasuries).
No jobs recovery in sight
Thursday, January 22nd, 2009It wasn’t a good year for Freddie Mac and one could rightfully challenge its accounting methods based on the problems it has encountered in the last year but the Office of the Chief Economist at Freddie Mac released its 2009 Economic and Housing Market Outlook recently and their forecasts deserve a look.
While the outlook calls for the U.S. to officially pull out of the recession in the third quarter of 2009, it also predicts unemployment to continue to rise peaking at 8.7% in the fourth quarter and remaining above current levels through 2010.
Heads, buy the market; tails, buy the market
Friday, October 5th, 2007Reading economic data is much more difficult when you have to rely on media based market alerts instead of a simple ticker reporting the real numbers. When I worked on the floor the number would flash: non-farm payrolls were up/down X, the unemployment rate was Y, hourly earnings grew/fell by Z%. We knew what the expectations were and how the numbers fell in comparison to expectations.
Now we get unsolicited analysis in front of the actual numbers and often are left wondering, ‘but what were the actual numbers?’ When we scroll down the story deep enough we find them and think ‘why didn’t you say that in the first place’ and often are left wondering if what we are getting is analysis or spin.
