According to a story put out by Cornell University on Dec. 1, investors, traders and regulators may have another early warning system to help prevent another market crash like the one on May 6. Instead of feeling panic and fear that investments could again be wiped out in seconds, they can rest assured that future “flash crashes” now might be “predictable and possibly preventable” thanks to a metric developed by two professors at Cornell University. (more…)
At the Association of Financial Professionals (AFP), which took place in San Antonio in November, the number of attendees (thousands) and exhibits from some of the largest banks and financial firms were positive indicators of an economy seemingly undecided about which direction to go. It appears, at the AFP anyway, banks were open for business.
The financial landscape has become an alphabet soup of regulators, exchanges and registration categories that range from APs to USD. With the passage of the Dodd-Frank bill we have seen even more added, including some that we don’t even know what they will do or what they will look like yet. Two that we are still figuring out are swap exchange facilities and security-based swap exchange facilities, aptly shortened to SEFs and SB SEFs. To be fair, there has been talk for years about moving swaps to exchanges and clearinghouses. Until Lehman Brothers’ collapse, though, that’s all it really was – talk. Now with a government mandate, the clock is ticking before SEFs are expected to be up and running.
Markets are reacting today to the news that China has taken over Japan as the second largest economy and will surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy within 20 years. Jon Nadler pointed out in his metals update this morning that the U.S. dollar was lower and the euro gained, while gold was up a bit. He also said that Japan and China could flip-flop for the number two spot in the economy as seasons and metrics used to calculate GDP change. (more…)
In its rate decision today, the Federal Reserve held interest rates as expected, but announced it would reinvest in mortgage-backed securities, or, as Phil Flynn predicted in his energy report this morning, “the fearful Fed may just pump that cash back out there and buy more MBS or bonds to try to inspire some economic activity and maybe even some job creation.”
In a speech in South Carolina today, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave another subdued forecast for the economy. He said that while “the financial crisis appears mostly behind us…we still have a considerable way to go to achieve a full recovery in our economy” due to persistent unemployment, foreclosure and lost savings for many Americans.
Last week I attended an interesting forum at the University Club of Chicago. It was entitled “America’s Fiscal Futures: Making Difficult Choices.”
The forum was put on by the MacArthur Foundation and included a discussion with Dr. John Palmer and Rudolph Penner. The two speakers, who come from different sides of the political spectrum, recently co-chaired a joint National Academy of Sciences/National Academy of Public Administration committee that produced the report “Choosing the Nation’s Fiscal Future.”
The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June meeting today. Here are their predictions, which contrast with what many experts are predicting (namely, a double-dip recession) as economic data on housing and employment remains grim. In the minutes, the FOMC said it “continued to anticipate a moderate recovery in economic activity through 2011.” However, due to current financial conditions “most participants revised down slightly their outlook for economic growth, and about one-half of the participants judged the balance of risks to growth as having moved to the downside.” (more…)
If America wants to learn something about economic prosperity, they might find it by looking to the north. The LA Times featured this interesting piece about the lessons the United States could learn from Canada on the economic front. The United States is still recovering from economic collapse, but the effects of 2008′s market meltdown on Canada have been much milder in comparison.
There has been several analysts predicting that the U.S. economy is headed for a double dip recession, which is looking more likely with each economic report we see. Whether we officially fall into a double dip recession or not, the economy clearly is still struggling. The current economic crisis began with housing and if it is likely to also end with housing, that end does not appear anywhere in site.
