Posts Tagged ‘energy’

Oil up

Thursday, June 11th, 2009

Oil’s upward climb continued today, hitting above $73/barrel, on forecasts for higher world oil demand by the International Energy Agency, according to MarketWatch. The outlook for oil could affect the overall economic outlook. In our July Markets story, our experts will discuss the how the energy outlook will impact the broader economic picture and the forecast for interest rates through 2009. One economist said that the rise in oil prices was actually a positive sign, as rising commodity prices signal improvement in the U.S. and global economy. However, rising commodity prices also could be a reaction to a weakening dollar and expectations for an increase in inflation. 

For our full mid-year economic outlook, check out the July issue of Futures magazine, online June 25.

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Before the fall

Tuesday, March 11th, 2008

Remember when $100 per barrel crude was a big story? Wondering when $110 crude will be the headline? In overnight trade on Nymex last night, crude traded at $109.72. But, in a conversation the morning of Monday, March 10, Timothy P. Evans, energy analyst for Citi Futures Perspective, offered a contrarian argument with some interesting and well grounded comments on the run-away market.

Here are some highlights:

“Fundamentally this is a bear market. It’s a market that is drawing a flow of buying on issues that are not directly related to the physical crude oil market, such as the weakness of the U.S. dollar and broader inflation expectations. So we are using crude oil as a hedge against a weaker dollar and as a hedge against inflation; and that’s why it’s $107 per barrel. We don’t have tight inventories; we have gasoline inventories at their highest level since March of 1993. And apparently, that is not enough inventory to turn the market lower. And so to my eye this looks like a bubble.”

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EI-EI-No?

Wednesday, December 12th, 2007

Lawmakers are still talking about the stall of the U.S. Farm Bill. Today the House Agriculture Committee marked up a bill to reauthorize the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This bill would provide exclusive jurisdiction to the CFTC in regulating energy markets. It remains to be seen how far the bill will go in Congress or in the Senate. Meanwhile, the Farm Bill is still held up, and members of the Ag committee made some noise in their meeting today about getting it passed. Committee Chairman Collin Peterson said the House could get the bill done by the end of January, but said he thinks “there are people in the Senate who do not want a Farm Bill.” Congressman Jerry Moran of Kansas said that “everyday Americans who farm are waiting for answers” about the bill.

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Oil slick

Wednesday, December 5th, 2007

Mixed government inventory reports caused a drop in energy futures Wednesday, and an announcement by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) did little to change the situation. OPEC decided to leave production levels steady at its meeting in Abu Dhabi, but investors shrugged off OPEC’s decision, according to the Associated Press. The Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a larger than expected decline in crude supplies and increases in heating oil and gasoline inventories.

“OPEC’s not adding production in the market was expected,” Eric Wittenauer, energy analyst at AG Edwards, says. He called the market oversold in the near term and said he remains bearish on the market overall.

According to the Associated Press, light, sweet crude for January delivery fell 83 cents to settle at $87.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, oil’s lowest close since Oct. 24. Prices drifted lower in after-hours trading, dipping below $87, the AP said.

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A Little Less Conversation, a Little More Action

Thursday, November 29th, 2007

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission ’s (CFTC) new kid on the block, Commissioner Bart Chilton, wants the agency to “get down to brass tacks.” Chilton set some lofty goals (well, lofty for the slow-moving CFTC, anyway) this morning at the Futures Industry Association’s (FIA) annual expo. But other members of the panel want to see a lot less talk and a lot more action from the CFTC.

Commissioner Chilton, who was sworn in last August, took a firm stance on fixing the CFTC’s actions –or rather inactions – of late. “We have the responsibility to look at what we’re not doing right…they’re not huge issues. We just need to get down to brass tacks and finalize these things,” Chilton said.

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