Posts Tagged ‘excessive speculation’

New study on specs sheds little light

Friday, August 28th, 2009

Throughout the battle over who or what caused crude oil to spike to $147 per barrel last year CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have consistently contended that despite the bluster from certain members of Congress and analysis of self appointed experts, there has been no empirical study that linked the spike to speculators or the positions held by commodity index funds.

 

Whether that claim can still be made or not is debatable as Rice University just released a paper calling previous Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) studies that showed excess speculation was not responsible, flawed.

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Say what you mean; mean …

Sunday, March 15th, 2009

Futures Industry Association President John Damgard said during the FIA conference in Boca Raton FL. that despite some comments that indicated otherwise, House majority leader Barney Frank is not looking to merge the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities Exchange Commission.

 

 There was some optimism at the Washington outlook panel on Saturday that politicians and bureaucrats tend to say what people want to hear and may not exactly follow that to the letter.

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Don’t just do something! Stand there!

Wednesday, July 23rd, 2008

A Congressional bill to curtail speculation in the oil market may not come up for a vote this evening because of a partisan disagreement over the number of amendments attached to the bill. Republican Senators intend to include as many as 28 amendments to the bill, including provisions that would open offshore drilling, a move opposed by Democrats.

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Excessive speculation and cognitive dissonance

Thursday, June 19th, 2008

With the recent Senate hearings and everybody debating the affects of speculation by index funds, we have been inundated with politically motivated noise demonizing everyone from hedge funds to oil companies and those who would both support or oppose offshore drilling. In an effort to go beyond the self-serving blather, here are three unique observations offered to me in the past several days on the subject.

“The typical line of reasoning is that commodity index funds exclusively buy and hold commodities, and this buying represents a permanent increase in demand, which naturally results in higher prices,” says John Joseph of commodity trading advisory SEMA4 Group. “Of course, this buying and holding activity is no different from the buying and holding activity performed by equity index funds. And yet commodity index activity has been branded as a threat to our economy, while equity index funds receive quite the opposite treatment. This is hypocritical at best and disingenuous at worst.”

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