Posts Tagged ‘non-farm payrolls’

Winning the expectations game

Friday, August 7th, 2009

The major stock indexes are rallying on a better than expected unemployment number. Non-farm payrolls for the month of July dropped 247,000, less than consensus estimates of 300,000 and the actual unemployment figure dropped to 9.4% from 9.5%.

 

For a brief period there bad news was bad news but we are back to the expectations game where spin always wins. And many analysts believe we are in the midst of a bull market. Here is the lead of the Washington Post’s online story on the number: “Employers throttle back on layoffs, cutting 247,000 jobs— the fewest in a year. Showing offers strong signal that recession is finally ending.”

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The truth will set you free

Friday, January 9th, 2009

Is there good news in this bad employment report? Perhaps.

The December employment situation report was as bad as could be. Non-farm payrolls fell by 524,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 7.2%. An additional 154,000 jobs had been lost in October and November according to revisions to those month’s reports.

When you look further into the numbers things get worse. There was a drop in hours worked to an all time low when seasonally adjusted and more people are only working part time. Shadow Government Statistics is reporting that the drop was 697,000 with seasonal biases worked in.

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A bad number

Friday, December 5th, 2008

Friday we found out that 533,000 Americans lost their job in November, the highest decline in non-farm payrolls in 34 years. The consensus expectation was a drop between 300,000 and 320,000. Despite this awful number the market took it well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 250 points in early morning trading—barely worth a mention given recent moves— and actually ended the day at 8635.42, up 259.18 points.

When you add the revisions from previous months that number grows to 732,000 jobs and the net job loss over the last three months is 1.26 million.

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